DATA LAYER 1
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Pitcher-first analysis
Starter ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, and sample size. Plus bullpen ERA and K/9 for the full game โ starters get the spotlight, bullpens finish ~40% of outs.
DATA LAYER 2
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Market edge scoring
We compare our model's win probability to the book's implied probability. Only plays with a verified edge above 2.5% after market calibration pass. No phantom edges.
DATA LAYER 3
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Park + lineup context
Every pick accounts for park factor, lineup OPS vs pitcher hand, and recent form over the last 10 games. Coors isn't Petco.
VERDICT
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CLEAN / BET / PASS tiers
CLEAN passes every condition in the AND-gate. BET passes most. PASS is the honest answer when there's no edge. Some days are zero-bet days โ that's correct.
TRACKER
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Personal tracker + P&L
Every pick you save auto-resolves. Real-time P&L in dollars based on your unit size. See your actual edge over time, not just win-loss.
AI
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Claude AI breakdowns
Every pick has a 2-sentence preview, key deciding factor, main risk, and honest lean โ from the same AI reasoning layer that powers the pick.